A mere two months ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him over missing a through-ball. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough query to resolve. History, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have stacked up.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a team which has strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look strangely fragile – but at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the player he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
